All Hail the Bull Market

Today marks the fifth anniversary of the bull market that started back in March 2009, and total returns over the period have exceeded 200%. It was on March 10, 2009 that equities jumped 6% and never again returned to the panic lows set the day before.

Hitting this milestone has many investors wondering how much more time the bull has to run. But instead of thinking in terms of time, we prefer to think about the “kinds of events” that bring the bull to an end, or worse, turn a bull market into a bear market. Right now, the coast is clear.

One way the bull market could end would be a recession. Obviously, at some point, some sort of recession is inevitable. Every other economic expansion in history has come to an end, and this one will, too. But recessions don’t just come completely out of the blue, and none of the typical causes looks ready to strike.

One of the most frequent causes of recessions is...

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